The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning that a weather disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 50 per cent chance of forming into a tropical depression within five days.

A weather disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression within five days, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning, July 22, 2020. The orange-shaded area on the map shows where a storm could develop. It is not the storm’s track, which is usually released once a system organizes into a tropical depression. (Image via National Hurricane Center)

On Thursday and Friday it could carry heavy rain and high tides to south Louisiana, forecasters said.

UPDATE: Atlantic tropical storm Gonzalo forms

Forecasters are also monitoring a tropical depression, which they predict will possibly strengthen into a tropical storm in the Atlantic on Wednesday. When it achieves that rank, it is called Gonzalo.

The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday, July 22, 2020, was tracking two disturbances – Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression 7 in the Atlantic. (Image via National Hurricane Center)

Here’s what forecasters say around 7 a.m. On Tropics on Wednesday.

Riots in the Gulf of Mexico

“Gradual growth” is likely over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a tropical wave, forecasters said Wednesday morning. The incident is now known as Invest 91L.

This has a 40 percent (medium) risk of developing into at least a tropical depression in 48 hours, and a 50 percent (medium) risk of developing into at least a tropical depression in 5 days.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach Texas and Louisiana later this week, forecasters said. Here’s what it looks like on satellite as of Wednesday morning, July 22, 2020. (Image via NOAA)

At 7 a.m., the weather disturbance created a wide area of disorganized showers across Mexico’s eastern Gulf, central and southern Florida, and west Cuba, forecasters said.

It is expected that, on Thursday and Friday, Texas and Louisiana will push northwest and enter the northwest gulf. Forecasters expect the disturbance center to remain south of the coastline of Louisiana until arriving in Texas somewhere.

The orange-shaded region on the map, forecasters said, indicates where a storm might form. It is not the direction of the storm, typically released as soon as a system organizes into a tropical depression.

An aircraft from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is expected to study the area later Wednesday, forecasters said, if necessary.

If the system strengthens into a tropical storm at least it will most likely be renamed Hanna.

What threats Louisiana faces?

Regardless of growth, the disturbance is expected to bring local heavy rainfall, rainy winds, dangerous lightning and higher than usual tides to southern Louisiana Thursday and Friday morning, the Slidell National Weather Service said Wednesday morning. Waterspouts can be done too.

Thunderstorm threat could linger in the area until Saturday, forecasters said, and then return to usual hot weather in the summertime and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tropical Atlantic Depression

A tropical depression in the Atlantic was expected to strengthen Wednesday into a tropical storm in the Atlantic, forecasters said. Here’s the track as of 4 a.m. (Image via National Hurricane Center)

The National Hurricane Center said a shallow depression in the Atlantic is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm later Wednesday.

Ab 4 a.m. CST, the depression was 1,285 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, and had become “a little more organized,” forecasters said.

It traveled at 12 mph northwest, and is predicted to pick up pace over the next few days. This weekend they are expected to hit the Caribbean.

The depression has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and is expected to intensify over the “next few days,” forecasters said. A tropical storm has sustained winds of 39 mph.

“It should also be remembered that this system’s limited scale makes it vulnerable to major strength variations, both upwards and downwards,” said the National Hurricane Centre.

Depression is not expected to pose a danger to Louisiana over the next 5 days, the Slidell National Weather Service said. Forecast models beyond the period of time are not considered accurate.

“Remember, we ‘re still in the season of hurricanes and now is a good time to check your preparations for hurricanes,” NWS forecasters wrote in their morning update.

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